Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Monday, June 22, 2009
2012 End of the world
Mesoamerican Long Count calendar
December, 2012 marks the ending of the current baktun cycle of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar. The Mayan Long Count set its "time zero" at a point in the past marking the end of the previous world and the beginning of the current one, which corresponds to either 11 or 13 August 3114 BC in the Gregorian calendar, depending on the formula used.[2]
The Long Count kept time in units of 20, so 20 days made a uinal, 18 uinals made a tun or 360 days, 20 tuns made a katun, and 20 katuns, or 144,000 days, made up a baktun. After 13 baktuns, the numbers reset and the count moved to a higher order.[3] So, for example, the Mayan date of 8.3.2.10.15 represents 8 baktuns, 3 katuns, 2 tuns, 10 uinals and 15 days since creation. Today, the most widely accepted correlations of the end of the thirteenth baktun, or Mayan date 13.0.0.0.0, with the Western calendar are either December 21 or December 23, 2012.[4] The first book to suggest that this date might have apocalyptic implications was The Maya by Michael D. Coe,[5] originally published in 1966, in which he said:
There is a suggestion . . . that Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation on the final day of the thirteenth [baktun]. Thus … our present universe … [would] be annihilated on December 23, 2012, when the Great Cycle of the Long Count reaches completion.[6]
More recent academic scholars of Maya civilization have disputed the apocalyptic interpretation of the Long Count calendar end-date, insisting that it simply marks a resetting of the calendar to Baktun 13.0.0.0.0,[7] rather as the units and tens columns of a car's odometer reset to zero each time a hundred miles are completed. They also argue that the Long Count calendar does not end on 13.0.0.0.0.[8] Scholars such as Linda Schele and David Freidel[9] cite the Mayan inscription CobaStela 1, which features the date 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0. In Mayan mythology, this date represents the age of the previous world at its ending. Because the Mayan calendar is cyclical, the above dating will also, of necessity, mark the end of the present Long Count cycle and the beginning of the next. With each column equal to twenty times its predecessor, this date lies some 41,341,049,999,999,999,999,999,994,879 years in the future, or 3 quintillion times the scientifically accepted age of the universe.
Only one Maya inscription, Tortuguero Monument 6, directly mentions the end of the 13th baktun, which corresponds to 2012. It has been defaced, though Mayan scholar David Stuart has attempted a partial translation:
- Tzuhtz-(a)j-oom u(y)-uxlajuun pik
- (ta) Chan Ajaw ux(-te') Uniiw.
- Uht-oom ...
- Y-em(al) ... Bolon Yookte' K'uh ta ...
- The Thirteenth 'Bak'tun" will be finished
- (on) Four Ajaw, the Third of Uniiw (K'ank'in).
- ... will occur.
- (It will be) the descent(?) of the Nine Support(?) God(s) to the...[10]
[edit]Theories
A number of theories have been advanced by various esoteric writers and mystics with regard to how the world will end in 2012. None have garnered mainstream acceptance by academic scholars of the Maya, who have rejected most on scientific and historical grounds.
[edit]New Age
Many believe that the ending of this cycle will correspond with a global "consciousness shift" and the beginning of a new age. The date became the subject of speculation by Frank Waters, who devotes two chapters to its interpretation, including discussion of an astrological chart for this date and its association with Hopi prophecies in Mexico Mystique: The Coming Sixth Age of Consciousness(1975).[11] The significance of the year 2012 (but not a specific day) was mentioned briefly by José Argüelles in The Transformative Vision, (1975)[12] and later in The Mayan Factor(1987),[13] promoted at the 1987 Harmonic Convergence.
Author Daniel Pinchbeck popularized New Age concepts about this date, linking it to beliefs about crop circles, alien abduction, and personal revelations based on the use of entheogens and mediumshipin his 2006 book 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl.[14] Pinchbeck argues for a shift in consciousness rather than an apocalypse, suggesting that materialistic attitudes, rather than the material world, are in jeopardy.[15] Semir Osmanagić, the archaeologist responsible for promoting the Bosnian pyramids, referred to 2012 in the conclusion of his book The World of the Maya.[16] He suggests that "Advancement of DNA may raise us to a higher level" and concludes, "When the 'heavens open' and cosmic energy is allowed to flow throughout our tiny Planet, will we be raised to a higher level by the vibrations".[16]
Experts on the ancient Maya such as Schele and Freidel[17] tend to see the focus on 2012 as a manifestation of Mayanism, a collection of New Age beliefs that reinterpret and potentially distort ancient Mayan culture. University of Florida astronomer Susan Milbrath, author of Star Gods of the Maya, is among those who have accused 2012 doomsday proponents of exploiting Mayan culture to advance political or personal agendas.[18] Promotion of Mayanism through interest in 2012 doomsday scenarios is contributing to the evolution of religious syncretism in contemporary Maya communities.[citation needed]
[edit]Galactic alignment
Frank Waters' book inspired further speculation by John Major Jenkins in the mid-1980s, noting the correspondence of the December 21 date with the winter solstice in 2012. This date was in line with an idea he terms the Galactic Alignment. This term was "coined" by galactic astrologer Raymond Mardyks who was the first to identify and write about the relationship of this 1998-2001 "galactic alignment" with the claimed 'Harmonic Convergence' of 1987 and the supposed Mayan end date of 2012.
In the Solar System, the planets and the Sun share roughly the same plane of orbit, known as the plane of the ecliptic. From our perspective on Earth, the twelve Zodiacal constellations move along or near the ecliptic, and over time, appear to recede counterclockwise by one degree every 72 years. This movement is attributed to a slight wobble in the Earth's axis as it spins. As a result, approximately every 2160 years, the constellation visible on the early morning of the spring equinox changes. In Western astrological traditions, this signals the end of one astrological age (currently the Age of Pisces) and the beginning of another (Age of Aquarius). Over the course of 26,000 years, the precession of the equinoxes makes one full circuit around the ecliptic.
Just as the spring equinox in the northern hemisphere is currently in the constellation of Pisces, so the winter solstice is currently in the constellation of Sagittarius, which happens to be the constellation intersected by the galactic equator. Every year for the last 2000 years or so, on the winter solstice, the Earth, Sun and the galactic equator come into alignment, and every year, precession pushes the Sun's position a little way further through the Milky Way's band.
Jenkins suggests that the Maya based their calendar on observations of the "dark rift", a band of black dust clouds in the Milky Way, which the Maya called the Xibalba be or Black Road.[19] Jenkins claims that the Maya were aware of where the ecliptic intersected the Black Road and gave this position in the sky a special significance in their cosmology.[20] According to the theory, the Sun precisely aligns with this intersection point at the winter solstice of 2012.[20] Jenkins is credited with the premise that the classical Mayans anticipated this conjunction and celebrated it as the harbinger of a profound spiritual transition for mankind.[21] New Age proponents of the galactic alignment theory argue that, just asastrology uses the positions of stars and planets to predict the future, the Mayans plotted their calendars with the objective of preparing for significant world events.[22]
Critics suggest that the alignment in question takes place over a 36-year period, corresponding to the diameter of the Sun, with the most precise convergence having already occurred without incident in 1998.[23] Also, Jenkins himself notes that there is no concrete evidence that the Maya were aware of precession.[24]
[edit]Timewave zero
Timewave zero, which is part of Novelty theory, is a numerological formula that purports to calculate the ebb and flow of "novelty", defined as increase in theuniverse's interconnectedness, or organised complexity,[25] over time. According to Terence McKenna, who conceived the idea in the early 1970s, the universe has ateleological attractor at the end of time that increases interconnectedness, eventually reaching a singularity of infinite complexity on December 21, 2012, at which point anything and everything imaginable will occur instantaneously. This idea has failed to gain any scientific credibility or recognition.
McKenna expressed "novelty" in a computer program, which purportedly produces a fractal waveform known as timewave zero or the timewave. Based on McKenna's interpretation of the King Wen sequence of the I Ching,[26] the graph appears to show great periods of novelty corresponding with major shifts in humanity's biological and cultural evolution. He believed the events of any given time are recursively related to the events of other times, and chose the atomic bombing of Hiroshima as the basis for calculating his end date of November, 2012. When he discovered this date's proximity to the end of the 13th baktun, he adjusted it so that the two dates matched.[27][28]
[edit]End of the world
Various ideas have been advanced concerning a possible end of the world in 2012. One idea involves a geomagnetic reversal (often incorrectly referred to as a polar shift by proponents of this theory), which could be triggered by a massive solar flare, one with energy equal to 100 million atomic bombs.[29] This is supported by evidence that the Earth's magnetic field is weakening,[30] which indicates an impending reversal of the north and south magnetic poles. Scientists believe the Earth is overdue for a geomagnetic reversal, and has been for a long time, even since the time of the Mayans, because the last reversal was 780,000 years ago.[31] Critics, however, claim geomagnetic reversals take up to 5,000 years to complete, and do not start on any particular date. Also, while NASA expects a particularly strong solar maximum sometime between 2010 and 2012,[32] there is no scientific evidence linking a solar maximum to a geomagnetic reversal.[33] A solar maximum would be mostly notable for its effects on satellite and cellular phone communications.[32]
Another apocalyptic idea circulating about 2012, which has existed in various forms since 1995 and has changed dates at least twice since then, is that a large planet, called Nibiru, will collide with or pass by Earth in that year. This idea has been ridiculed by astronomers, who point out that such an object so close to Earth would be visible to anyone looking up at the night sky.[34][35][36]
[edit]Dissemination
Interest in the 2012 doomsday prediction has spread in recent years as a result of a groundswell of Internet sites and blogs, as well as numerous books and television series on the subject.
A movie called 2012, directed by Roland Emmerich and starring John Cusack, Danny Glover, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Amanda Peet, Thandie Newton, Oliver Platt and Woody Harrelson is scheduled for release on November 13th, 2009. A viral marketing campaign by Sony Pictures Digital Inc. for the film features a website from the supposedly scientific "Institute for Human Continuity" describing the various doomsday scenarios meant to occur in that year:[37] the picture currently on its 'about' page appears to suggest that the European Union headquarters in Brussels is in fact the IHC's own premises, while the site offers no academic CVs at all for the allegedly 'doctorate' staff listed.
Over recent years the television network the History Channel has played a major role in broadcasting alarmist ideas of this type, often targeting 2012.[38][39] In its coverage, it relates to the present day a number of doomsday prophecies derived from non-Mayan sources,[40] referencing (among others) predictions ascribed to the Hopi people, the Book of Revelation by John of Patmos, the Sibylline Books, the quatrains of Nostradamus (which do not specifically mention the end of the world[41]) and a version of the anonymous 14th-century Vaticinia de Summis Pontificibus that the History Channel has dubbed The Lost Book of Nostradamus,[42] as well as the prophecies of the semi-legendary Myrddin Wyllt, or Merlin, and Mother Shipton,[43] the last of which, in their original 1641 edition, say nothing about doomsday either.[44]
Ron Rosenbaum of Slate.com introduced the topic thus in 2009: "The growing harmonic convergence of apocalyptic stupidity that goes under the rubric 2012 or 'the Mayan Calendar Prophecy' has not yet reached Y2K proportions. And while it's broken out of the New Agey cult status where it's been fermenting for some years, there are still many in the chattering classes who haven't heard about it." [45]
[edit]Critical summary
(based on the above except where otherwise indicated)
- Academic research does not indicate that the Maya attached any apocalyptic significance to the year 2012: the date for the end of their world lay unimaginable aeons of time in the future.
- John Major Jenkins's 'Galactic alignment' theory is based not only on a misleading astronomical claim, but in part on the same false calendrical premise.
- As the Timewave Zero theory has never been published in a peer-reviewed journal and its sources and reasoning are primarily what would be considered numerological rather than mathematical, the theory has failed to gain any scientific credibility or much recognition by professional mathematicians and scientists.
- Professional astronomers ridicule the Nibiru collision theory, which is based on claimed 'channeling' by extraterrestrials.[46][47]
- More academic research is needed into the claimed Hopi prophecy: it does not appear to mention the year 2012.[48]
- The Bible's Book of Revelation, composed some 1900 years ago, did indeed offer a dramatic picture of the end of the world—but it also promised that it would happen 'very soon'.[49]
- The prophecy of the Tiburtine Sybil, as reproduced in the 16th century, did indeed likewise present a dramatic picture of the apocalypse, but did not date it, least of all to 2012.[50]
- While the quatrains of Nostradamus are clearly intended to be read in a pre-apocalyptic context, they do not specifically mention (or, consequently, date) the end of the world: their Preface states that they are valid until the year 3797.[51]
- The so-called Lost Book of Nostradamus is a version of the anonymous Vaticinia de summis pontificibus — a book of prophetic papal emblems dating from centuries before his time – and does not mention the year 2012.
- The Prophecies of Merlin were a fictional composition by the medieval Geoffrey of Monmouth,[52] amplified in 13th-century Venice, and did not mention the year 2012.[53]
- The original 1641 edition of The Prophecies of Mother Shipton says nothing at all about doomsday or the end of the world or, consequently, any proposed date for either.[54]
- The alarmist claims of imminent doom made by Sony Pictures in their fictional publicity for the forthcoming film 2012 are not supported by reputable independent academic research.
The 2012 doomsday prediction is a present-day cultural meme proposing that cataclysmic and apocalyptic events will occur in the year 2012. This idea has been disseminated by numerous books, Internet sites and by TV documentaries. The forecast is based primarily on what is claimed to be the end-date of theMesoamerican Long Count calendar, which is presented as lasting 5,125 years and as terminating on December 21 or 23, 2012, along with interpretations of assorted legends, scriptures, numerological constructions and prophecies.
A New Age interpretation of this transition posits that, during this time, the planet and its inhabitants may undergo a positive physical or spiritual transformation rather than an armageddon, and that 2012 may mark the beginning of a newer sociopolitical age for the global community.